Türkiye’s economy showed strong performance in the second quarter of 2025, with GDP expanding 4.8% year-on-year despite global trade turbulence, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

The figure surpassed market forecasts. Earlier surveys by Anadolu Agency (AA) and Reuters had predicted 3.9% and 4.1%, respectively. Compared with the first quarter, Türkiye’s economy grew 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, faster than the previous 0.7%.

TurkStat also revised Q1 2025 growth upward from 2% to 2.3%.

Construction Leads Growth

In Q2 2025, global trade was clouded by uncertainty after U.S. President Donald Trump announced steep tariff hikes. Although tensions between the U.S. and China disrupted markets, the suspension of tariffs later in the quarter eased the situation.

In Türkiye, construction became the fastest-growing sector, expanding 10.9%. Other strong performers included:

1. Information and communication: +7.1%
2. Industry: +6.1%
3. Trade: +5.6%

By contrast, agriculture shrank 3%, while public administration fell 1.2%.

At current prices, Türkiye’s GDP in Q2 2025 rose 43.7% to ₺14.57 trillion ($377.6 billion). On an annual basis, GDP reached ₺52.76 trillion ($1.28 trillion).

2024 Economic Data and Per Capita Income

TurkStat also published revised GDP data for 2024, which for the first time included 2.5 million Syrian refugees under temporary protection in per capita calculations.

Türkiye’s economy expanded 3.3% in 2024, with GDP rising 64.6% to ₺44.58 trillion. Manufacturing accounted for the largest share of output at 16%.

GDP per capita climbed to ₺503,076 ($15,325), placing Türkiye among higher-income nations.

Finance Minister Highlights Disinflation Program

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek welcomed the stronger growth, noting that it benefited from calendar effects and a favorable low base.

He stressed that the government’s disinflation program is paying off, adding:

1. Agriculture shrank due to frost damage.
2. Manufacturing recorded its best performance in three years.
3. Growth is expected to gradually move toward its potential as global trade pressures ease.

Simsek confirmed that the government will soon publish the Medium-Term Program (2026–2028), focusing on price stability, sustainable growth, and improving public welfare.

Brokerage Notes Diverging Sector Trends

Local brokerage Marbas Menkul Degerler said growth performance diverged across industries.

Key highlights included:

1. Fixed capital investment: +8.8%
2. Household consumption: +5.1%
3. Imports: +8.8%
4. Exports: +1.7%
5. Government spending: –5.2%

Although the trade deficit widened, balance of payments support helped stabilize the outlook.

Türkiye’s Economic Outlook

The stronger-than-expected Q2 2025 growth shows Türkiye’s resilience in a challenging global environment. Construction continues to be the cornerstone of economic growth, supported by investment and household consumption.

Looking ahead, policymakers expect steady growth as financial conditions improve and global uncertainties ease.